The
prospect of witnessing a fiercely fought general election in 2014
between two largest political outfits with Modi and Rahul at their
respective helms, had been considerably dampened with the drubbing of
congress in the recently concluded assembly elections held across
four states. The reluctance of congress in apportioning the blame of
defeat to its would be knight had many pundits seething in
exasperation and suggesting that revival of party fortune could come
about only if Rahul takes a backseat and the likes of Scindia and
Pilot are thrust ahead as campaign managers. Atleast, this way one
would know where the accountability lies. Humbly accepting the
verdict, Rahul again threw the hat in the ring by announcing an
impending restructuring in the party, stressed on establishing a
connect with masses the Kejriwal way and promised unimaginable slew
of measures to put his party back in reckoning. No matter how
incredulous this may sound, the palpable exuberance of the nation to
ascertain who shall triumph when these two political honchos lock
horns, has once again rekindled. This has been stoked by reports that
Congress could probably anoint Rahul as Prime Ministerial candidate
in the AICC meet scheduled on 17 January, 2014.
Dubbed
as having a finger on the pulse of masses through his sojourns
across the length and breadth of rural India, knowing their problems
like the back of his hand and heir apparent to self proclaimed
pro-poor party, Rahul has repeated failed to win over their
allegiance especially after 2009 despite rolling out flagship
programs like MGNREGS, Food security bill etc. The most predictable
reason offered for poll debacles in U.P. and other states is
attributed to lack of organizational structure and need to build up
strong cadres. Well, If Rahul being the chairperson of Youth congress
for several years could not fill up the structural vacuum and
mobilize his cadres in such long span, the party overhaul he wishes
to implement just four months prior to election 2014 certainly seems
a tall task and not without further widening of fissures between
young blood and old vanguards.
Unfortunately,
congress has lost ground in few southern pockets that once were its
strongholds for taking a call on contentious issues. Andhra pradesh,
which for years had been a congress bastion would prove very
difficult to redeem owing to bifurcation of the state and
emergence of rival faction YSR congress which enjoys immense sway
in the coastal region of Andhra and expected to leave congress way
behind in electoral fray. On other hand, in Tamilnadu, DMK has
decided not to get into a pre-poll alliance with Congress after
facing rather tumultuous experience at their hands in 2G scam with
Raja and Kanimozhi landing behind bars. Others who walked away from
the coalition include TMC and MIM, further reducing the choice for
congress in scouting partners for support and with anti-incumbency
being a huge factor this time around, a comprehensive rout seems
imminent.
While
the expediency and volte-face in approach adopted by initiating
dialogue with Anna or requesting different party's for extending
support in passing Lokpal bill is appreciable, the skeptics see it as
too little too late. Rahul certainly is attempting an image makeover
by voicing opinion notably on supreme court ruling on Gay rights,
trashing ordinance for protecting convicted MPs and MLAs from
disqualification etc. But, the critics never for a moment cease to
forget his disposition of maintaining stoic silence on issues of
national/international importance, reticence to media interactions
and not giving an insight into his mind . Though he could still
cover his tracks gradually in coming months, the most discomfiting
and loaded baggage of corruption that UPA-2 is leaving behind
wouldn't be easy to shrug off from public memory. The long list of
scams(2G, Commonwealth, Coal Gate, Aadarsh etc) resulting in huge
loses to state's exchequer, are so deeply entrenched that nation
seems in all likelihood made up its mind to bequeth power to BJP.
This
assumption would be too far fetched since their road to forming a
government is not sans glitches either. Securing an absolute majority
without a strong presence in southern states and hindi heartland of
U.P. which sends largest number of MP's to parliament is virtually
impossible. Stiching post poll alliances for BJP shall be a litmus
test as they stand alienated by Nitish's JDU to whom rally around a
polarizing figure and PM nominee like Modi is now untenable. Other
regional forces harping on secular credentials wouldn't associate
with right wing plank having a seemingly divisive agenda. Barring
AIADMK and TDP, there is no inkling of a slant towards BJP from other
formations. Thus, cobbling up requisite numbers to stake claim will
be an uphill task unless the Messiah of development and torch bearer
of progress for middle classes, manages 180 plus seats on his own
steam. Attempt to realign with Yadurrapa's party who was made to quit
on charges of corruption, an issue they have been Chastising Congress
for, smacks of dual standards on principles that they themselves
find hard to hold onto.
The
growth and development story of Gujrat certainly is Modi's crowning
glory, but the hyperbole surrounding it has repeatedly been
dismissed as Gujrat was always a flourishing state even under the
congress regime. The soaring popularity on social media among the
youth, yet another aspect that he gloats about was also busted by the
Cobra Post sting exposing Tech companies managing Modi's campaign in
exchange for money by creating false identities. The halo around
Modi factor hasn't had any profound impact on BJP's performance in
Delhi as AAP managed to garner the vote share of congress and formed
the government despite being second largest party. Major credit for
their stupendous run in Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan
was ascribed to good governance by incumbent Chief Ministers and
anti-establishment vote respectively.
Though
Modi has been relentless in addressing rallies to make the campaign
more aggressive, many opine that he has reached the crescendo pretty
early. Does one know Modi's vision for India? Political, economic
and social agenda of BJP should form the crux of his discourse and
swing the public opinion in their favour, rather than scornful
personal barbs. What is most disgraceful is the crass tone he employs
in criticizing the opposition and some of its prominent leaders in
his nasal twang. Certainly, his demeanour lacks the persona that
dignified and graceful Leaders are made of.
The
ensuing general elections 2014 would baffle the nation in choosing
between Rahul - Inexperienced, idealistic enigma who has shunned
responsibility all through and owes his candidature for the top job
to family legacy and Modi - an authoritarian leader with third
tenure under his belt as Chief minister of Gujrat, carrying a
blemish of Godhra riots which he cannot wish away and regarded as
panacea of all problems facing the country by some sections of
society. Neither of them fit the bill for premiership. A fractured
mandate with BJP emerging as the single largest party is a distinct
possibility. As one congressman put it, Congress could well take
their badly bruised image and despicable performance in assembly
elections as an opportunity to introspect, revamp their party and
rise like a phoenix whenever subsequent opportunity (beyond 2014)
presents itself. Perhaps, it is their turn to play constructive
opposition and scoff at every instance BJP falters, with a wry smile.